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Strategic Objective

Advance the understanding and prediction of changes in the environment through world class science and observations. (NOAA, NIST)

Strategic Objective

Themes:

Natural Resources and Environment

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Overview
Progress Update

Overview

In order to meet the needs of communities and businesses in a changing environment, comprehensive and integrated observations and an improved understanding of the Earth system are needed. To make this improved understanding useful to society, it must be employed in models and applications that are used in planning and decision making.

Progress Update

During FY 2014, the Department of Commerce made progress toward global understanding and prediction of changes in the environment through strong execution toward several key strategies supporting this objective: deploy the next generation of satellites and observation and data gathering systems; advance holistic, integrative ecosystem research; develop the next-generation environmental modeling systems; and improve the understanding of greenhouse gas processes.

Accomplishments include:

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) and Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS) instruments passed their pre-ship reviews and were integrated onto the GOES-R spacecraft platform in early 2014. These instruments will observe the sun and space weather, including coronal mass ejections, solar flares and ion fluxes that can disrupt power grids, communication and navigation systems and create radiation hazards.
NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, working with scientists from NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), deployed the first ever unmanned system into a major hurricane to collect weather data designed to improve hurricane forecasting. The Coyote unmanned aircraft system (UAS) was deployed into Hurricane Edouard’s eye from a NOAA WP-3D Orion “Hurricane Hunter” research aircraft documenting record-breaking winds of 100kts.
On September 30, 2014, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) transitioned the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model into operations. The HRRR was developed over the past five years by researchers from NOAA’s OAR Earth System Research Laboratory. HRRR provides forecasters more detailed, short-term information about quickly developing small-scale storms. The HRRR allows NWS forecasters to better assess rapidly changing storms and has a spatial resolution four times finer than what is currently used in hourly updated NWS models. These increased capabilities will help improve NWS warning times and ultimately increasing public safety during high impact storm events.
In 2014, President Obama released an implementation plan for moving forward on his national strategy to advance U.S. security and stewardship interests in the Arctic. In keeping with the goals and tenets of his strategy, NOAA released its Arctic Action Plan—a document that provides NOAA scientists, stakeholders and partners a roadmap to make shared progress in monitoring, understanding, and protecting this vast, valuable, and vulnerable region.
NIST, NOAA, and University collaborators have completed and published an assessment of the measurement uncertainty of an aircraft-based methodology quantifying urban greenhouse gas emissions in Indianapolis, Indiana as part of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX). This experiment seeks to quantify greenhouse gas emissions from an urban area using both top-down and bottom-up methods. Indianapolis is the 1^st of several urban test beds being developed by the Department.
In FY 2014, NOAA and NIST employees contributed to 1766 peer-reviewed publications related to environmental understanding and prediction.
In FY 2014, the share of data processed and delivered to the user community relative to all the data transmitted to NOAA from NOAA-managed satellites was 99.7%, vs. 99.5% in FY 2013.

Next Steps in FY 2015:

FY2015 Q1 – Finish Global Forecast System (GFS) model with advanced physics in order to improve weather forecast accuracy.
FY2015 Q1 – Release Arctic Report Card 2014 in order to present annually updated, peer-reviewed information on recent observations of environmental conditions in the Arctic relative to historical records.
FY2015 Q1 – Establish the Los Angeles Carbon Project by initiating operation of real-time 13 observing point surface network for the Los Angeles Basin in order to define better individual emissions sources and environmental conditions.
FY2015 Q2 – Complete JPSS System Integration Review in order to determine if the flight and ground segments are ready to be integrated into the overall system (which also includes facilities and personnel).
FY2015 Q3 – Update concentrations of full suite of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at all sites in the NOAA network in order to better define emissions sources and environmental conditions.
FY2015 Q4 – Finalize Specifications for Ocean Survey Vessel 1 in order to deploy observation and data gathering systems.

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Strategic Goals

Strategic Goal:

Ensure communities and businesses have the necessary information, products, and services to prepare for and prosper in a changing environment

Statement:

Ensure communities and businesses have the necessary information, products, and services to prepare for and prosper in a changing environment

Strategic Objectives

Foster healthy and sustainable marine resources, habitats, and ecosystems through improved management and partnerships. (NOAA)

Statement:

Foster healthy and sustainable marine resources, habitats, and ecosystems through improved management and partnerships. (NOAA)

Description:

The ocean economy contributes more than $250 billion annually to the Nation’s economy, supports approximately 44 million jobs in coastal counties, and enhances diverse ocean-based communities. The many economic, social, and environmental benefits that ocean ecosystems provide are jeopardized by global demands for seafood and energy, coastal development, increased tourism and recreational use. Threats from climate change, ocean acidification, coastal wetland loss, and other environmental stressors are even more ominous. They threaten human health and the domestic food supply. They place greater stress on overexploited fish stocks, iconic marine species, and their habitats, and reduce ecosystem sustainability, biodiversity, and resilience.

Effective policy and management of human activities, based on strong science, partnerships, and technology, are essential to sustain healthy ocean resources, habitats, ecosystems and coastal communities. The Department has strong legislative mandates and a pivotal role in sustaining marine fisheries and ecosystems, protecting sensitive areas and cultural heritage, and limiting the consequences of cumulative impacts.

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FY 14-15 Priority Goal: Confirm elimination of Overfishing

Statement:

By September 30, 2015, the Department of Commerce will confirm the elimination of overfishing on all 21 U.S. domestic stocks identified as subject to overfishing as of June 30, 2013 by comparing catch data relative to overfishing limits (OFLs).

Description:

The purpose of this goal is to show that by implementing rigorous limits on annual catch, the U.S. can end and prevent overfishing. This is a key step to ensuring the sustainable management of our nation’s fisheries. Federal fishery management is based on the concept of maximum sustainable yield, which is the largest long-term average catch that can be taken from a stock under prevailing environmental and fishery conditions. A stock that is subject to overfishing has a fishing mortality (harvest) rate higher than the rate that produces maximum sustainable yield. The amount of catch equivalent to this harvest rate is the overfishing limit (OFL).

The Magnuson-Stevens Act is the primary law that governs how fisheries are managed in U.S. federal waters. When the Magnuson-Stevens Act was reauthorized in 2007, it mandated that annual catch limits (ACLs) be put in place for all federally managed domestic fish stocks, with certain exceptions. ACLs are set at a level below the OFL to account for scientific uncertainty and to reduce the risk of overfishing. ACLs are in place for all fish stocks as required by the Magnuson-Stevens Act. These catch limits should keep catch below the OFL and prevent overfishing on these stocks. Preventing overfishing should increase the long-term economic and social benefits of the nation’s fisheries.

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Improve preparedness, response, and recovery from weather and water events by building a Weather-Ready Nation. (NOAA, Census)

Statement:

Improve preparedness, response, and recovery from weather and water events by building a Weather-Ready Nation. (NOAA, Census)

Description:

Weather affects almost every endeavor in the Nation. Major industries and small businesses alike depend on weather, water, and climate information to make informed decisions and plan for the future. Extreme events are becoming the norm. Winter storms, flooding, drought, hurricanes, wildfires, extreme temperatures, and tornados can cost lives and billions of dollars in damage. The steep increases in damaging weather-related events and associated societal impacts highlight the growing importance of weather, water, and climate information. Urbanization, migration to coastal communities, and a growing population also increasingly put people and businesses at greater risk.

A Weather-Ready Nation is about building community preparedness in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather and water events. The Department will continue its critical role in protecting the lives, property, and the economy by providing valuable weather, water, and climate products and services. This role will be expanded to embrace collaboration and seek new ways to create value beyond traditional forecasting activities. Delivering enhanced weather, water, and climate information will help communities and businesses to be ready, responsive, and resilient. Refining how the information is shared and ultimately used will make the U.S. that much more weather ready.

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FY 14-15 Priority Goal: Improve Forecasting Accuracy and Lead Times for Severe Weather

Statement:

By September 30, 2015, the Department of Commerce will improve its overall weather forecast model accuracy to 9 days which will enable more accurate, consistent, longer lead time for specific weather event forecasts and warnings.

Description:

Major weather events demonstrate the importance of hazard preparedness and response in the United States. Improved weather forecast accuracy, combined with enhanced decision support services, allow emergency management and the American public more time to prepare for high-impact weather events. This enables protection of life and property and enhancement of the U.S. economy.

A key way to measure improvements in model performance is to examine how far into the future Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) guidance demonstrates skill. Model output ceases to have useful skill at predicting the weather at longer forecast lengths. Large scale weather patterns that affect the local weather that each of us experience on a daily basis, are driven by features in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. During the past 20 years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) has seen its ability to provide useful predictions of future high-impact weather events extend from 6 days to 8 days.

This goal focuses on improving the Global Forecast System model 2013 that currently has useful skill at forecasting the mid-levels of the atmosphere across the globe out to 8.0 days. Upon completion of forecasting upgrades over the next two years, the NWS expects to extend this out to 9 days.

Improving global weather prediction facilitates improvements to regional, local scale models that provide accurate information about the formation and movement of high impact storms in the right place at the right time. Knowing with a good level of confidence that the storm is coming 5 days in advance enables for significantly improved response. Evacuations from hurricanes require 3 full days, and thus accurate, consistent forecasts 4-7 days in advance are invaluable to people who have to make these critical decisions. Increased lead time means lives saved and property protected. NWS will also continue efforts to support the use of improved weather forecast data by emergency managers through better impact-based decision support services. Achieving this priority goal will allow NWS to predict farther into the future and enable the American public to make the right choices when extreme weather threatens.

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Enable U.S. businesses to adapt and prosper by developing environmental and climate informed solutions. (ITA, ESA, NIST, NOAA)

Statement:

Enable U.S. businesses to adapt and prosper by developing environmental and climate informed solutions. (ITA, ESA, NIST, NOAA)

Description:

To survive and flourish, businesses must be able to adapt to the changing environment by balancing environmental, social, and economic concerns. When businesses adopt processes and solutions that recognize the importance of the environment and climate, the results can include cost savings and new commercial products and services that improve profitability and competitiveness. At the same time, the positive power and reach of business and markets will further our shared environmental, social, and economic goals for the health of the Nation.

The Department is uniquely equipped to develop and provide new environmental and climate informed services that help businesses enhance their value. The Department’s capabilities in this area span a range of activities that help create new businesses, improve competitiveness, promote environmental goals, and provide important environmental information for decision making. Ultimately, the Department’s programs in this area can be leveraged to empower US companies and foster environmental and climate business solutions that benefit the Nation.

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Strengthen the resiliency of communities and regions by delivering targeted services to build capacity. (NOAA, NIST, EDA)

Statement:

Strengthen the resiliency of communities and regions by delivering targeted services to build capacity. (NOAA, NIST, EDA, Census)

Description:

Many U.S. communities face significant environmental changes, natural disasters, or economic disruptions. They need plans to reduce the effects, adapt to future changes, and support long-term recovery efforts. A key component of these plans should be actionable information to aid in managing risk and in developing and evaluating options to adapt to and mitigate future environmental and economic change. The Department has been an essential source of information needed to invigorate communities, ecosystems, and economies.

The Department will strengthen community-based resilience efforts. It will promote preparedness, protect critical public resources, support science and research germane to preparedness and resilience, and ensure that federal operations continue to serve citizens in a changing climate. The means to these ends will be building on a strong scientific foundation and decades of engagement with interagency, academic, and private sector partners.

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